Fort Stockton’s real constraint is not jobs, it’s utilities
The city is spending like capacity matters more than optics, because it does.
EDO Power Law #4: Solvency Before Spectacle.
Avoid deals and projects that look good but weaken the balance sheet.
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Last week’s EDO Roundup…
Dec 8, 2025 – Huntington says it will cut some Cadence roles after acquisition
Sounds like post-merger consolidation: Huntington says there will be some job cuts at Texas-based Cadence after the $7.4B deal, but they didn’t put a number on it. Still calling Texas a growth market, but near-term it’s a workforce disruption to watch.Dec 10, 2025 – Port of Harlingen’s $7M projects advance
The Port is moving on $7M+ in upgrades (lighting, drainage, and dock rehab) backed by both TxDOT seaport funding and a MARAD port grant. It’s the kind of boring-in-a-good-way work that makes industrial/logistics recruitment easier.Dec 10, 2025 – Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund grant to Texas Quantum Institute
The state approved a $4.8M TSIF grant for UT Austin’s Texas Quantum Institute to build QLab, focused on quantum-enhanced semiconductor metrology. That’s real “R&D plumbing” that helps sell the Austin region as more than just headlines.Dec 11, 2025 – How SpaceX’s rapid expansion is reshaping South Texas
SpaceX’s footprint keeps stretching the map down at Boca Chica, and the story notes Starbase nominated two projects worth nearly $1B for Texas Enterprise Zone designation (potentially up to $7.5M in refunds if approved). Big scale, big implications, and definitely not a quiet neighbor.Dec 11, 2025 – 200+ jobs cut as adidas distributor, electronics firm close sites in D-FW
Two DFW facilities (Irving + Richardson) are set to close next year, totaling 200+ job cuts, based on notices filed with the Texas Workforce Commission. Not huge by itself, but it’s another reminder to stay tight on BRE and early-warning signals.Dec 12, 2025 – Southwest Airlines to open Austin crew base in 2026, create 2,000 jobs
This is the big one: Southwest plans an Austin crew base launching March 2026, ramping to 2,000+ jobs by mid-2027, tied to a $14M Texas Enterprise Fund grant (plus local incentives reported). That’s a major workforce and airport-driven growth signal.Dec 12, 2025 – North Texas layoffs top 10,000 in 2025 but experts say DFW economy remains strong
KERA says North Texas has crossed 10,000 layoff announcements this year (WARN-based tracking), with FedEx closing a Coppell facility impacting 856 jobs in phased layoffs starting in January. That’s the kind of event where rapid response matters more than press releases.Dec 12, 2025 – Time’s “Architects of AI” spotlights Texas as an AI infrastructure hub
This one’s more “signal than spreadsheet,” but it reinforces the same theme: Texas is being positioned nationally as a major AI/data center battleground. If you’re trying to win these projects, the pitch is power, water, fiber, and speed, not slogans.
Fort Stockton’s real constraint is not jobs, it’s utilities…
Issue 22
B.L.U.F. Fort Stockton’s playbook is about surviving the cycle by building capacity while the money is flowing. The city is using boom-era valuation growth to lock in steadier property tax support, while absorbing utility capital pressure that shows up as a large unrestricted deficit in business-type activities.
The signal to watch is not just revenue growth, it’s whether the city can keep upgrading water, wastewater, and gas systems fast enough to stay “build-ready” through the next downturn, without losing rate stability or fiscal flexibility.
City Financial Profile
Fort Stockton’s finances show an intentional hedge: grow stable revenues, keep tax-rate headroom, and fund infrastructure even when it makes parts of the balance sheet look ugly.
Property tax levy increased 8.91% in the FY2024–2025 budget, raising $127,884 more than the prior year, with $14,946.93 tied to new property on the roll.
Total adopted property tax rate is $0.3096 per $100 valuation, with $0.1483 M&O and $0.1613 I&S (plus an adopted effective rate shown in the budget packet).
Governmental activities ended FY2024 at $17.29M total net position, with $8.83M unrestricted net position shown on the Statement of Net Position.
Business-type activities ended FY2024 at $23.44M total net position, but with an unrestricted net position deficit of $8.37M. That is the balance-sheet shadow of heavy utility capital needs.
The FY2024–2025 budget packet cites total municipal debt obligations of $8,479,436.
Takeaway: Fort Stockton is choosing stability over smooth optics. The city is locking in property-tax support while utility reinvestment pressure shows up as a real constraint, and a real risk, if rates and capital planning don’t stay aligned.
Economic Drivers
Fort Stockton’s engine is Permian-linked demand, but the durable advantage is its corridor position and ability to keep basic systems reliable when activity surges.
The city is deliberately improving “foundational capacity” that directly supports employers and residents: water system upgrades tied to the RO plants, line extensions, hydrant maintenance, and system monitoring.
Gas system modernization is framed as compliance and readiness work, including completion of cast iron gas line replacement in 2022 under Texas Railroad Commission standards (as described by the city).
The corridor story is not branding, it’s throughput. TxDOT’s US 285 South project explicitly targets safety and mobility on a route with 463 recorded crashes (2016–2020) and proposes conversion from two-lane undivided to four-lane divided with a median.
Takeaway: The most defensible “diversification” move here is turning location plus reliability into stickier value, projects that make freight, field operations, and long-term residents choose Fort Stockton even when drilling slows.
Business Climate and Growth Indicators
Fort Stockton is trying to reduce friction for growth by tightening fundamentals and modernizing how the city governs development.
The city reports a major governance milestone: Home Rule Charter passed Nov. 8, 2022, increasing local control over zoning and ordinances.
The city also reports an active effort to digitize the city zoning map to ease future development workflows.
Utility operations are being upgraded with AMI meter reading technology to improve accuracy and detect leaks and anomalies, which matters when systems are under growth stress.
Takeaway: The competitive edge is procedural and operational. If Fort Stockton can keep permits, zoning clarity, and utility reliability moving at the speed of private capital, it stays investable even through commodity whiplash.
Opportunity Gaps
Fort Stockton has a solid platform, but the next chapter depends on converting capacity work into investable, repeatable deal flow.
Utility Capacity Blueprint
Market Opportunity: Publish a rate-backed 5-year utility capital plan that pairs projects with funding paths (rates, bonds, grants).
Need / Gap: Business-type activities show an $8.37M unrestricted deficit, a clear sign that capital intensity is outrunning current flexibility.
Workforce “Ready Sites” Pipeline
Market Opportunity: Stand up “ready sites” for workforce-serving housing and services, supported by clean zoning data and fast entitlements.
Need / Gap: The city is already moving to digitize zoning and using Home Rule authority, but the pipeline has to be predictable enough to retain a permanent workforce through cycles.
US 285 Corridor Logistics Cluster
Market Opportunity: Build a corridor-facing logistics services cluster around the US 285 upgrade, truck services, yards, light industrial, and safety-oriented commercial nodes.
Need / Gap: TxDOT is upgrading a high-crash segment for mobility and safety, the city has to be positioned to capture the downstream private buildout.
Takeaway: These gaps are not abstract. They are the difference between being a pass-through support town during booms, and being a “sticky” operating base that keeps jobs and tax base when the cycle turns.
Closing Insight
Fort Stockton is a clean example of what fast-growth, cyclical cities must do: convert temporary demand into permanent capacity. The balance sheet is already telling the story, with stable tax decisions on one side and utility capital stress on the other. The winning move is disciplined transparency, capital sequencing, and regulatory clarity, so the market sees reliability instead of volatility.
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